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Commodities Drawdown Tracker

6 tracked commodities•0 at ATH•Average drawdown: -38.3%

Current peak-to-trough drawdowns, historical multi-year cycles, and recovery data across precious and industrial commodities.

Palladium

PA=F
-68.44%
Bear Market
Last Close
$1,086.00/oz
Peak (ATH)
$3,441.22
1705 days below peak
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Silver

SI=F
-56.02%
Bear Market
Last Close
$53.54/oz
Peak (ATH)
$121.73
280 days below peak
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Platinum

PL=F
-49.46%
Bear Market
Last Close
$1,550.00/oz
Peak (ATH)
$3,067.00
282 days below peak
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Uranium

SRUUF
-26.38%
Correction
Last Close
$18.45/sh
Peak (ATH)
$25.06
1007 days below peak
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Gold

GC=F
-25.87%
Correction
Last Close
$4,146.80/oz
Peak (ATH)
$5,593.90
280 days below peak
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Copper

HG=F
-3.71%
Minor Dip
Last Close
$6.49/lb
Peak (ATH)
$6.74
56 days below peak
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Commodity Drawdown Levels

Commodity cycles reflect macro supply, industrial demand, and monetary shifts with distinct volatility ranges.

Minor Dip
0% to -5%

Mild spot price fluctuation within normal trading ranges.

Gain to ATHUp to +5.3%
Pullback
-5% to -15%

Seasonal or inventory-driven decline within a broader macro cycle.

Gain to ATH+5.3% to +17.6%
Correction
-15% to -30%

Significant macro repricing driven by interest rate or dollar shifts.

Gain to ATH+17.6% to +42.9%
Bear Market
< -30%

Prolonged cyclical downturn and deep historical valuation trough.

Gain to ATH> +42.9%

Commodities Drawdown Analysis & Historical Crash Context

Historical Bear Markets & Deepest Crashes

During the 2008 financial crisis, Copper collapsed -68.8% in six months. Following the 2011 commodity supercycle peak, Gold fell -45.5% over four years to a 2015 bottom, while Silver dropped -72.5% from its near-$50 high. Automotive metals saw major supply-squeeze unwinds: Palladium plunged -86.4% after 2001 and -75.3% after its 2022 peak, driving substitution with Platinum. In energy, Uranium (SRUUF) suffered a decade-long -89% drawdown following the 2011 Fukushima disaster.

Typical Pullback Frequency

Gold exhibits the lowest drawdown volatility among commodities, rarely falling deeper than -15% to -20% during broader financial stress. Industrial metals (Copper, Silver, Platinum, Palladium) experience routine -10% to -15% pullbacks during inventory destocking, and cyclical -40% to -65% drawdowns during global manufacturing slowdowns. Uranium follows multi-year nuclear utility fuel cycles largely independent of equity market trends.

Historical Recovery Timelines

Commodity recoveries depend on long mining capex cycles and All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) production floors. The 2008 copper crash staged a rapid 2.5-year (925-day) recovery driven by Chinese infrastructure stimulus. In contrast, the 2011 supercycle peak required 10.2 years (3,738 days) for copper to break even in May 2021, while Gold took 9.0 years (3,263 days) to reclaim its 2011 high in August 2020.

Frequently Asked Questions about Commodities

Click to expand
How do precious metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum) decouple during broader market sell-offs?
Precious metals respond to different economic drivers based on their monetary versus industrial utilization: • Gold: Serves primarily as a monetary reserve and counterparty-free store of value. During equity bear markets, Gold typically experiences very shallow drawdowns (-10% to -20%) and frequently reaches new ATHs while equities decline. • Silver, Platinum, Palladium: Possess heavy industrial, electronics, and automotive catalytic converter demand. When global industrial output slows, these metals often suffer deep cyclical drawdowns of -40% to -65% even if Gold remains resilient.
What drives multi-year drawdowns in Copper and Uranium (SRUUF)?
Industrial and energy commodities follow distinct supply-demand and investment cycles: • Copper ("Dr. Copper"): Deeply tied to global manufacturing, construction, electrification, and grid infrastructure. Its drawdowns mirror global economic slowdowns and industrial inventory cycles. • Uranium (SRUUF): Dictated by multi-year nuclear utility fuel contracting cycles, geopolitical trade policies, and long lead times for mine permitting. Uranium drawdowns often decouple entirely from stock market fluctuations.
What were the largest commodity drawdowns in the last 10 years?
Over the last 10 completed years: • Gold maintained the lowest maximum drawdown among commodities (rarely dropping deeper than -15% to -22%). • Silver experienced cyclical pullbacks exceeding -40% to -48%. • Palladium endured a severe bear market exceeding -70% from its 2022 peak due to automotive demand shifts and substitution. • Uranium (SRUUF) experienced prolonged multi-year consolidation before embarking on a structural nuclear revival.
How does marginal production cost create a structural floor during deep commodity drawdowns?
Unlike digital assets or equity multiples, physical commodities are constrained by physical extraction economics. When prices fall below the marginal All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) of production: 1. Mining operators curtail unprofitable production and shut down marginal shafts. 2. Capital expenditure for new exploration dries up, shrinking global supply. 3. Structural supply deficits eventually force prices back above production cost floors. Tracking commodity drawdowns illustrates where current spot prices stand relative to historical peak valuations and industry-wide production cost estimates.